Why Cybersecurity Keeps Failing and How We Can Rebuild It
This index is one number from a larger argument: that cybersecurity’s failure is
structural, not technical. The foundations were wrong from the start, but we can rebuild.
Not yet published
Reported cybercrime losses have outgrown the stock market by more than six to one.
The Hacker in a Hoodie Index is the record behind that claim: what individual cyber incidents actually cost, each figure read from the document that reported it.
The index
What $100 became · 2014 → 2024
One hundred dollars, tracked two ways since 2014. The gap is the story.
Over 2014 to 2024, $100 tracking cybercrime losses reported to the FBI grew to $2,074, while $100 in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested grew to $343: a difference of 6.05 times.
Hackers in hoodies2014
$100
S&P 500, dividends reinvested
$100
6.05×
Cybercrime loss outgrew the market over the decade: $2,074 against $343, both in nominal dollars, measured from year-end 2014 to year-end 2024.
Hacker in a Hoodie Index: reported losses to the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, $800,492,073 in 2014 against $16,600,000,000 in 2024. Compound annual growth rate 35.42 percent.
35.4%/yr10-year window · 2014–2024
34.2%/yrfull record · 2001–2025
The IC3 growth rate barely moves across windows. The index is not built on a chosen base year, and the 6.05x multiple compares like with like: both figures are measured from year-end 2014 to year-end 2024, both in nominal dollars.
THE INDEX · LIVE · 2014 = 100
The gap is still widening
6.05x was the first reading, taken through 2024. The index carries it forward. As of 2025 it stands at 6.48x, and it moves as the ecosystem does.
BOOK · 2014-2024
6.05x
the first reading
LIVE · 2014-2025
6.48x
where it stands now
Cybercrime loss (FBI IC3) and S&P 500 total return, each indexed to 100 at year-end 2014, both nominal. In 2025 reported loss rose 25.8% while the market rose 17.44%, so the gap widened from 6.05x to 6.48x. The book's 6.05x is the 2014-2024 reading and does not change; the index recomputes as each year posts.
Follow the record
New figures as they clear verification, and word when Built Wrong lands. No more email than the work warrants.
Index updates and Built Wrong launch news. No list sharing.
The Losses, Side By Side
What we’ve lost, by the numbers
Two documented measures of annual cybercrime loss, one log scale. The FBI IC3 series is a continuous
annual reading from 2014 to 2025, and by the FBI’s own account a significant underestimation.
These numbers are reported figures only. Chainalysis provides a yearly view of ransom payments.
IC3 reported losses / US complaints / Verified
Chainalysis ransom payments / on-chain / revised
About that trillion-dollar number: the $10.5 trillion often quoted for global cybercrime is a
forward projection from Cybersecurity Ventures, compounded from a 2015 base whose methodology is not
disclosed. Because it is assumed rather than measured, it is excluded from the chart and the ledger,
and noted only here. The trillion-dollar figure is constantly referred to in public messaging and
presentations, due to the propagation of those numbers in AI learning data. Cybersecurity Ventures
has never provided data that supports this forecast.
About 2010: the IC3 line skips 2010. The FBI’s own retrospective plots that year near $1.0B
while its contemporaneous 2010 report recorded $485M. The two cannot both be right, so we leave the
point out rather than choose.
The consequences that barely moved
Cost per breach barely moved.
Across more than a decade, while aggregate reported losses compounded at double digits, the modeled
cost of a single breach grew about 3% a year, from $3.5M in 2014 to a record
$4.99M in 2026.
If the per-event price is growing in the low single digits while the total keeps compounding at
double digits, the growth is in volume and attack surface, not in severity. That is a finding the
headline trillion-dollar number hides.
IBM’s figure is the cost of one breach, shown here for shape, not added to the totals above.
Malware on a single employee's computer at Nippon Columbia Group, the contractor holding Daiichi Kosho's customer data, put more than 8.7 million records in reach: names, genders, birthdates, emails, and phone numbers for 8,631,000 customers and 93,000 employees. The notice does not say how the malware arrived or how long it sat there. Daiichi Kosho notes its own systems were not breached, which certainly must sound like tone deafness for all the victims.
Every loss here is Verified — the company’s own SEC filing states the figure, and the company name links to it. One incident, one figure, ranked by size, never rolled into a single total. Sort by any column.
The 10 largest of 28 Verified losses · each stated by the company’s own filing · one figure each, never added together · click a heading to sort
How each figure is gradedVVerifiedthe linked primary document states itAAttesteda published report credits a named sourceIInferredno direct confirmation; a lead, not a figureThe full standard →
On the Government Record · live
40SEC 8-K cyber-incident disclosures logged · 2026 year to date
All Verified · SEC 8-K cyber-incident filings, Item 1.05, Item 8.01, and Item 7.01
This counts the cyber incidents companies disclosed to the SEC on Form 8-K this year — the material-incident filings under Item 1.05, the cyber events reported under Item 8.01, and cyber disclosures made under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD). It is a count of disclosures, not a measure of total losses: most incidents never reach a public filing, and many are reported before any dollar figure exists. The ledger below also carries state-regulator breach and enforcement records, shown for context but not included in this count. It counts disclosed filings and never sums their figures.
Someone got into Harman Fitness's network on September 4, 2025, and the former Crunch Fitness franchise operator reached the California Attorney General thirteen months later. The filing never says how; reports put the toll at 4,714 people and list identifiers, financial data, and health information. NETRUNNER claimed a compromise in April 2026, a link nobody has confirmed. Thirteen months of silence leaves a lot of questions for an organization that sold it's franchises to another company earlier this year.
Retail and Consumer
California AG breach notification
Initial attack typenot disclosed·Impact data theft confirmed·Actor NETRUNNER
Ransomware reached multiple portions of Advantest's IT network, traced after the Tokyo test-equipment maker spotted unusual activity on February 15, 2026. The source names no entry point, no group, no count, and cannot yet say whether customer or employee data was touched. Encryption landing across several parts of a network measures how far one intrusion was allowed to travel. Nobody has said how they got in, which is its own answer about what was being watched.
A social engineering campaign gave an outsider remote access to a single Fragomen user account, caught May 5, 2026, and a subset of files left a firm whose business is immigration and identity records. How many people are in those files goes unsaid, exactly as it did in 2020, when Google employees' immigration data was the target at the same law firm. One persuaded employee was the entire boundary. Five months of review, and still no number of victims, not identification of a method and now real disclosure except a notice.
Professional and Business Services
California AG breach notification
Initial attack type phishing or social engineering confirmed·Impact data theft confirmed
Aldrich Services LLP was breached on August 22 and 23, 2026, and the California filing stops there: no entry point, no data types, no count of people affected. The sample letter carries the title "Notice of Data Event," a phrase built to sound like a casual report on the weather.
Professional and Business Services
California AG breach notification
Initial attack typenot disclosed·Impact data theft inferred
Lincoln Property Company lost roughly 800 gigabytes of contracts, audits, and employee records to a ransomware attack that INC Ransom claims began April 1, 2026, six days before discovery on April 7. The exposed data potentially includes employee Social Security numbers and financial account details. The entry point appears only as a class-action lawsuit's allegation of spear-phishing. Adding insult to injury, Lincoln Property Company didn't bother to change the file name on their California AG disclosure, where it is clearly titled "Notification Letter - Template.pdf". Lose 800 gigabytes of data, go through the motion of disclosure without even trying.
Real Estate and Construction
California AG breach notification
Initial attack type phishing or social engineering inferred·Impact ransomware confirmed+ data theft·Actor INC Ransom
Some losses surface outside any SEC filing: in a company’s own statement, a regulator or court record, or a news report crediting an identifiable source. Each is admitted on that attribution and graded by its strength. A figure credibly attributed to the company, a regulator, or a court is Attested; an estimate or reconstruction is Inferred. Each is logged on its own, with its source and grade, and like every figure here it stands alone, never combined into a total.
Malware on a single employee's computer at Nippon Columbia Group, the contractor holding Daiichi Kosho's customer data, put more than 8.7 million records in reach: names, genders, birthdates, emails, and phone numbers for 8,631,000 customers and 93,000 employees. The notice does not say how the malware arrived or how long it sat there. Daiichi Kosho notes its own systems were not breached, which certainly must sound like tone deafness for all the victims.
Media and Entertainment
Karaoke Giant Reveals Data Breach Impacting Eight Million - Infosecurity Magazine
Patient records sat on legacy Cerner servers that Oracle Health inherited with its $28.3 billion acquisition, and a 2025 hack reached names, Social Security numbers, diagnoses, medicines, test results, and images. The Texas attorney general's figure puts the toll near 20 million people, while the federal tally still shows a placeholder of 501 as reported to HHR by Oracle in June 2025. One server, one account, one password = 20 million records lost. Built wrong, defined.
Healthcare and Life Sciences
Oracle Health's Cerner EHR Breach Figure Soars to 20 Million
Initial attack type compromised credentials inferred·Impact data theft confirmed
Thousands of ASOS customers heard about the intrusion from the intruders themselves, through an unauthorized push notification sent over the third-party platforms ASOS uses to reach them. A group calling itself the Xuanye Group claims a full compromise of a Snowflake instance; ASOS says names and contact details may have been accessed and has not said how anyone got in. The messaging platform was a public disclosure mechanism that beat ASOS's own communications by hours.
Retail and Consumer
ASOS Confirms Cyberattack, Data Breach
Initial attack type third-party or supply chain inferred·Impact data theft confirmed·Actor Xuanye Group
Someone spent September running automated searches through Denmark's Central Person Register on an unnamed domestic company's legitimate access, harvesting names, addresses, and CPR numbers for roughly 8.8 million people. Nobody has said how that access was obtained or who used it. The register's real perimeter was every outside company that was allowed to login, and one of them was allowed to query an entire nation at machine speed. A national identifier is the one credential a country cannot reissue.
Public Sector and Education
Major Denmark breach exposes personal data of 8.8 million people
Initial attack type third-party or supply chain inferred·Impact data theft confirmed
A suspected ransomware attack stopped about 500 servers at Osaka Metropolitan University at once beginning October 2, taking down coursework systems, email, and digital student IDs and canceling classes through October 8. The entry point, the attacker, any ransom demand, and whether at least 130,000 personal records left all remain unstated. Five hundred servers failing together is one failure domain. Much of the backup data was encrypted too: the recovery plan lived inside the blast radius.
Public Sector and Education
Cyberattack on Osaka University Shuts Down 500 Servers
FROM THE LEDGER · INCIDENT COUNT · n = 359 incidents
Which sectors the tracked incidents fall in: a count of incidents, not a total of dollars. Each bar is that sector’s share of the 359 on the record, ranked; a floor, not a census.
Share of incidents tracked on this ledger, not of all breaches. Healthcare leads partly because mandatory breach-disclosure rules in that sector put more of its incidents into the public record, not because it is necessarily attacked more often.
THE RULE
It would be tempting to add these numbers up and put one big total at the top of the page. We do not,
and we never will. Each line measures something different: different victims, different crimes,
different units, overlapping in some places and blind to each other in others. Add them together and
you get a number that means nothing, the kind of headline figure this index was built to refuse. So
the sources stay side by side, each labeled for what it counts, and the arithmetic stays honest.
THE FLOOR
The other temptation is to estimate what is missing and call the result the real number. We do not, and we never will. These are the losses someone measured. What no one measured has no number, only its absence. A figure that claims to cover the whole is not a larger version of this page. It is a projection, not a statistic.